新闻是有分量的

时时彩天游平台'(6)

2019-05-01 10:34栏目:新闻

It is unlikely that the trend towards lower fertility will reverse. “Once having one or two children becomes the norm, it stays the norm,” write Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson in “Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline”. “Couples no longer see having children as a duty…to their families or their god. Rather, they choose to raise a child as an act of personal fulfilment. And they are quickly fulfilled.”

生育率走低的趋势会得到扭转的可能性很小。”一旦生一两个孩子称为常态,常态就会保持下去。“Darrell Bricker 和John Ibbitson 在《空旷地球:全球人口数量减少的冲击》中写道。“夫妻不在将生育孩子视为对他们家或对他们神的职责。相反,他们选择将抚养孩子作为一种实现自我的举动。而且他们很快就被满足了。”

The big question-mark hangs over women in poor, high-fertility countries. By 2025 only 1% will live in places where the fertility rate is above 5.0; however, a hefty 32% will live in places where it is between 2.1 and 5.0, predicts the UN. Some people argue that having big families is part of the culture of such places and unlikely to change. Many locals would agree, and their religious leaders would add that God wants them to multiply. But a similar “cultural” preference for large families once prevailed almost everywhere and has changed beyond recognition. So there is no reason to assume that it is immutable.

处在贫穷高生育率的国家的女性有很大的不确定性。联合国预测,到2025年,只有1%到女性会居住在生育率高于5.0的地区;但是占可观比例的32%女性会住在生育率介于2.1和5.0的地区。有人认为,大家庭观念是这些地方文化的一部分,这种观念难以改变。很多当地人同意这样的看法,他们的宗教领导声称繁衍是神的旨意。但是类似与对大家庭的偏好曾几乎在世界各地都盛行,而如今这种观念变得让人认不出来了。所以没有理由相信这不可改变。

Others assume that the important factor is the availability of contraception. However, using household surveys in Africa, Mr Lutz found that less than a tenth of women who researchers thought might need birth control cited cost or lack of access as reasons for not using it. The main reasons were lack of knowledge, misplaced fear of health risks and opposition to family planning. None of these things can be changed by handing out free condoms. All require a change of mindset. (Or, in some cases, contraception that a woman can use without her husband knowing.)

一些人认为,一个重要的因素是避孕措施的可获得性。但是通过非洲的家庭调查,Lutz 发现在研究者认为需要避孕的女性当中,不到十分之一把避孕花销、缺少避孕措施援引为不使用避孕措施的原因。不采取避孕措施的主要的原因在于缺乏知识、对避孕产生错误的恐慌,以及对家庭计划生育的反对,而这些不能靠发放免费的避孕套来改变,需要改变的是思想观念。(或者,在有些情况下,可以在老公不知情的情况下,女性使用避孕措施。)

Several factors correlate strongly with smaller families. One, as mentioned, is income. Another is urbanisation. Probably the most important, however, is educating girls. The more years they spend in school, the fewer babies they have.

小型家庭与几个因素密切相关。如上文提到的收入则是其一。另一个因素就是城市化。但是最为重要的是教育女孩。她们在学校受教育时间越长,生育的孩子就越少。

This is hard to disentangle from the other two—richer countries tend to be more urban and to educate girls better. And it is theoretically possible that causality could flow the other way—women who get pregnant as teenagers may be forced to drop out of school. But this effect is likely to be small. When researchers look only at the education that girls receive before they become sexually mature, they still find that more years in school means fewer babies later in life. That suggests that learning reduces fertility, not the other way round.

这难以和其他两个因素分解开来——富裕国家通常城市化程度更高,女孩受到的教育更好。理论上,这种因果关系也可能反向适用——在青少年时期怀孕之后,女性可能被迫辍学。但是这种影响可能是很小的。当研究者只关注在女孩们性成熟之前受到的教育,他们仍然发现,女孩受教育的时间越长,生育的孩子越少。这显示教育程度降低生育率,而不是反过来。

A truckload of academic studies supports this argument. Education reduces fertility by giving women other options. It increases their chances of finding paid work. It reduces their economic dependence on their husbands, making it easier to refuse to have more children even if he wants them. It equips them with the mental tools and self-confidence to question traditional norms, such as having as many children as possible. It makes it more likely that they will understand, and use, contraception. It transforms their ambitions for their own children—and thus the number that they choose to have.